A new study jointly published by UPM Specialty Materials and global consultancy Smithers suggests fibre-based materials could become the leading packaging solution for food applications by 2045, supported by advances in barrier coating technologies, tightening sustainability regulations and changing consumer preferences.

The report is based on responses from more than 230 packaging professionals representing different segments of the global packaging value chain and examines how regulation, recycling and material innovation could influence food packaging over the next two decades.

Fibre-Based Packaging Expected to Expand Market Share

According to the survey, respondents expect fibre-based packaging to increase its share of the global food packaging market from approximately 37% today to 42% by 2045.

The study also found that 71% of respondents believe fibre-based materials will be viewed as the most sustainable packaging option, reflecting growing confidence that new barrier coating technologies can enable paper-based materials to replace plastics in applications that have traditionally required high-performance barrier properties.

The findings highlight continued investment across the packaging industry in renewable fibre solutions capable of meeting food protection requirements while improving recyclability.

Barrier Technology Continues to Drive Innovation

The report identifies barrier coating development as one of the most significant technology trends shaping the future of fibre packaging.

Improved coatings are expected to expand the range of food products that can be packaged using paper-based materials by enhancing resistance to moisture, oxygen and grease while maintaining compatibility with paper recycling systems.

For paper manufacturers, converters and packaging developers, barrier innovation is becoming increasingly important as companies seek alternatives to conventional plastic-based multilayer packaging.

Regulation Expected to Influence Material Selection

Survey participants also identified regulation as one of the strongest drivers of future packaging decisions.

According to the study, 71% of respondents expect sustainability requirements to evolve from voluntary corporate initiatives into mandatory government policies, while 88% believe regulatory developments will significantly influence future material choices.

Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) programs and eco-modulation fees were identified as key mechanisms expected to encourage the use of recyclable packaging while increasing costs for materials that are more difficult to recover.

These findings reflect the growing influence of legislation such as the European Union’s Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR), which is accelerating investment in recyclable and renewable packaging solutions.

Recycling Infrastructure Remains a Critical Challenge

The study projects that global packaging recycling rates could increase from 31% in 2030 to 37% by 2045, although respondents acknowledged that landfill and waste-to-energy systems are expected to remain part of the waste management landscape.

Regional differences are also expected to persist, with Europe continuing to benefit from more mature recycling infrastructure, while North America and the Asia-Pacific region face varying regulatory and collection challenges.

The report suggests that improving recycling performance will depend not only on material innovation but also on continued investment in collection, sorting and processing infrastructure.

Industry Continues Shift Toward Circular Packaging

The findings reflect broader changes taking place across the global pulp, paper and packaging industries, where manufacturers are investing in renewable fibre materials, recyclable packaging formats and advanced coating technologies to support circular economy objectives.

As regulatory expectations increase and consumer demand for sustainable packaging continues to grow, fibre-based materials are expected to play an increasingly important role in future food packaging applications.

While the report presents industry expectations rather than market forecasts, it highlights the direction many packaging professionals believe the sector is taking as sustainability, recyclability and material innovation become increasingly important competitive factors.

Last Updated on 02/07/2026 by Jota Machinery